Stephen Strasburg will be shut down within the next four or five starts. Since Day 1, Nats GM Mike Rizzo has made it clear that Strasburg would be working this season on an innings cap, much like Jordan Zimmermann the year before. Although rare, it’s not unprecedented to shut down a pitcher like Zimmermann after 160 innings. However, it is unprecedented to shut down a pitcher like Strasburg, a #1 draft pick and the ace of the rotation, in the midst of a pennant race. Let alone the first pennant race in Washington since the 1930s.
It seems like everyone has an opinion on the matter. And everyone has the same opinion: the Nationals are crazy to shut him down. He’s the ace of the rotation. He boasts a 98mph fastball, a 90mph change, and an 82mph curve. All deadly pitches on their own and when combined together, it’s nearly unbeatable. This season, Strasburg is 15-5 with a 2.85 ERA and leads the NL with 183 strikeouts. His team has a 7 game division lead in the NL and owns the best record in baseball at 77-46. Through 123 games last year, the Nationals were 60-63. The year before that, they stood at 53-70.
But we need to take a look at how the Nationals came to be the best team in baseball. A lot of people, who have not been following the team since they moved to Washington in ’05 view this season as somewhat of a fluke. Who knows whether they’ll be this good again? How do we know the Nationals will be healthy in future years? Will they ever be in a good enough position as they are today?
This team isn’t a fluke. It is the result of years of mediocrity coupled with an unbelievable front office job. Mike Rizzo and his team have put together the strongest rotation and one of the best bullpens in all of baseball. Their lineup is solid and their bench is deep. They’ve drafted, developed, and acquired. In addition to notable draft names like Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Harper, they managed to unload other draft choices and prospects for an asset on par with Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez. They have developed players like All-Star shortstop Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, and Steve Lombardozzi. They found a 30-year old journeyman in Michael Morse that they have turned into one of the best pure power hitters in the game. Sean Burnett, Craig Stammen, Tyler Clippard, and Drew Storen have combined to produce a formidable bullpen for any team that manages to get past the Nats’ starters. Mike Rizzo even managed to lure Jayson Werth away from a first-place team to a last-place team, without even leaving the division. And Adam LaRoche should be the comeback player of the year. No doubt.
The Nationals aren’t going anywhere. They’re good. Really good. And as good of a season as they’re having, they have been riddled with injuries. Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Michael Morse, Drew Storen, and Jayson Werth have all spent time on the disabled list. The Nats also lost Wilson Ramos for the season to an ACL tear. The only part of the team that has stayed off the disabled list has been their starters.
And that is exactly why Stephen Strasburg is going to stop pitching mid-way through September in the midst of a playoff race, for a city that hasn’t seen the postseason in nearly 80 years. Although Strasburg has been spectacular, I would go as far as to say that he has been the third best starter this season. The Nationals traded for All-Star left-hander Gio Gonzalez in the off-season. His stat line: 16-6 with a 3.23 ERA and 161 K’s. But the most consistent starter has been Jordan Zimmerman. Although his 9-7 record might not scream “ACE”, he has a 2.54 ERA (lower than Strasburg’s and Gonzalez’s) and has walked less than 30 batters in over 150 innings of work.
And this is the model. This is their blueprint. Zimmermann underwent Tommy John surgery a year before Strasburg. They capped his innings. And he’s even better this year. They want to do the same thing with Strasburg. A 24-year old kid underwent major reconstructive elbow surgery two years ago. They literally take tendons from your leg and put them back in your arm! And the Nationals plan is to proceed with caution, rest his arm, continue to refine his mechanics, and hopefully enter next season with a better pitcher than the All-Star that he’s been this year.
Side note: One thing that bothers me is Strasburg’s pitching motion. He has an unconventional delivery which places too much stress on the arm. When pitchers come back from Tommy John, they have a tendency to overwork their shoulder to take some of the pressure off the elbow. There have been a number of Tommy John patients who have had shoulder problems a few years down the road. With Strasburg’s motion the way it is, prudence is the best strategy.
June 8th, 2010. On this date, I watched Strasburg’s MLB debut from the Nationals pressbox. I had the rare opportunity to sit next to one the most knowledgeable men in baseball and a good friend, ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian. He was in shock. He had never seen a debut performance like it in all of his year’s of covering baseball. His enthusiasm and awe for the kid’s 14 strikeout performance was contagious. There was energy and electricity at Nationals Park that night unlike anything I’ve ever felt watching a baseball game. Even Opening Day 2005 didn’t have the same feeling that Strasburg’s debut did. A packed house came to watch their #1 draft pick, their phenom, their future. This is when I knew that the Nationals were going to be good. Maybe not next year, maybe not the year after, but sometime in the future.
And now I have to listen to people talk about how shutting him down is a bad idea. And none of these people are Nationals fans. None of these people have followed this team since ’05. None of these people have lived their whole lives in DC. None of these people understand that this is a good team that got a little too good, a little too fast. All of these people, however, think they know what’s best. Their opinions are somehow more valuable than those closest to the situation. “The GM who has constructed the best team in baseball is wrong. The entire front office is wrong. The doctors are wrong. Scott Boras, Strasburg’s agent, is wrong. The Nationals fan base is wrong.”
There’s no debate here. There has never been a debate. The Nationals are doing what’s best for Stephen, what’s best for the Nationals, and what’s best for Washington.
As I see it, there are 12-14 teams that are capable of winning a World Series. With those odds, it would be foolish to think the Nationals are going to win it all. As Oakland GM Billy Beane likes to say, “the postseason is all luck”. At the end of the 2012 season, a team will be crowned World Champions, that team will probably not be the Nationals, and everyone will raise their arms and say, “I was right. They lost because they shut down Stephen Strasburg”.
jasonrobertkeene. 